Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”