American Democracy Could Fail to Endure One More Year – Are European Nations Prepared for This Eventuality?

Authoritarianism is typically envisioned with a specific look: black-clad, orderly, and menacing. It isn't supposed to resemble a heavyset president who has difficulty saying everyday terms and digresses about renovating United Nations buildings with marble rather than terrazzo. But as Umberto Eco noted in his influential work on the persistent nature of authoritarian rule, “Reality is not so straightforward. Ur-Fascism may resurface in the most benign guises.”

Scholars and Insiders Recognize the Threat

Academic experts, researchers, and including certain ex- presidential insiders have seen beyond the comedic exterior. They perceive in the former president and his allies the philosopher's core characteristics: the call to tradition and rejection of rationality, fear of diversity, antagonism toward disagreement, bitterness, machismo, deterioration of discourse into propaganda, and the veneration of a “strong” figure. Almost a year ago, historian an expert on fascism clarified his reasons for revised his view regarding applying the term to describe this political movement, stating: “It’s bubbling from the grassroots in deeply concerning ways, and that is very much like the early authoritarian regimes. It is the real thing. It really is.”

Measures Undermining Democratic Norms

Since then, the Trump administration has utilized the US military and state militias contrary to the will of local leaders. It has pressured local governments to strip voting rights from opposition voters in extraordinary ways, and proposed eliminating postal ballots to exclude citizens living abroad. They have employed government authority to ban books, bully the press, and “silence” entertainers who mock Trump. It has seized presidential authority in alarming and questionably lawful ways, including applying tariffs, immigration policy, and selective exceptions to generate subservience among corporate actors.

Excessive focus on whether actions are legal overlooks the bigger picture: legality is, practically speaking, whatever the supreme court decides. If the supreme court acquiesces to fundamental changes in the character of the US, that is just one more sign of how deep the decay extends.

From specific measures to the decision to openly honor historical secessionists, the intended trajectory is clear.

Dropping the Mask

The facade fell further following the murder of Charlie Kirk – one more tragic event in the merging of firearm incidents and growing political violence. During his unusual funeral-rally, Stephen Miller delivered an address filled with the very elements the philosopher warned against, ranting against a vague “they” who “cannot conceive of the force they've ignited in everyone”. “You amount to nothing,” Miller added. “You have nothing. You represent evil. You are jealousy. You are resentment. You are hatred. You are nothing. You can build nothing. You achieve nothing.”

Europe’s Response: From Denial to Negotiation

In the past year, while the administration and his supporters have dismantled US democratic institutions with incredible speed, the European dialogue at last moved from denial to attempts at negotiation, including a degree of recognition of US disengagement and disinterest going forward. However there's been almost no room for a top-tier, public conversation about how to respond if the US government is, in the near term, in the hands of actors hostile to the EU’s basic raison d’être and its values.

It's clear the reasons European leaders are reluctant to address this issue publicly before the public. They fear that alienating the president, even slightly, could result him to remove American backing for the Eastern European nation. The cleverest believe they can delay by praising Trump, manipulating him sufficiently to find a stronger position, whereas the blindly optimistic look to the 2026 midterms as a turning point, and some sort of “restoration of normality”. Yet the midterms won't rescue the situation. According to legal expert Marc Elias detailed for The New Yorker, the upcoming vote are likely to not be completely democratic, and in cases they are, Trump’s past actions of insurrection indicates that the results could easily be disputed. And, Trump is laying laying the groundwork to drop Ukraine fully onto Europe's shoulders.

Taking Trump Literally

During the initial term, we heard, ad nauseam, that he ought to be taken seriously, but not word-for-word. It was a mistake at the time, and it’s a error now. When Trump says, “I hate political rivals and I do not desire what's best for them”, we in Europe (“a foe,” recall?) should interpret his words directly. The radical anti-democratic program the Trump administration is pursuing at home is relevant to the EU. A US with a new, masked, border enforcement unit with vast resources, whose “conservative” government sends its armed forces to “liberal” cities, and employs the criminal justice system to exact retribution on political opponents at the leader's command – in short, the end of legal order – necessarily affects European democracy. Not least, because the US government is engaged in an ideological battle against Europe, promoting groups that seek to dismantle it as it currently exists.

European Voters Ahead of Leaders

European voters are ahead of their representatives on this issue. The spring EU poll indicated that large majorities want the EU to protect them from crises and security risks, think the EU requires more financial means to do so, and favor new funding provided by the EU as a whole, rather than national governments individually. A survey of the largest EU nations – France, Germany, the Kingdom of Spain, the Italian Republic, and Poland – revealed that a majority feel the EU was humiliated in the latest agreement with the US. They fault the EU executive for failing to protect the continent vigorously, with a significant portion of over a third wanting the union to become more “oppositional” to the US administration.

A prominent historian recently gave US citizens over a year to rescue their democracy. As an American, I don’t think the nation has that long. As Europeans, we should assume that it does not.

Europeans are prepared for a frank discussion about the challenge the continent faces from Trump – the same way they’ve solidified in the face of aggression from Vladimir Putin. The danger stems from Europe’s leaders equivocating, delaying, and avoiding this dialogue. Should they fail to speak openly, voters will conclude that EU governance and its structures are insufficiently robust to endure the coordinated assault that is developing opposing it.